CARB recently released a preliminary greenhouse gas inventory reporting that the the state’s emissions increased in 2021 and 2022 as compared with 2020.
Reporting by Scoping Plan sector in units of million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO2e), CARB revealed that emissions are on an upward trend:
| Sector | 2020 GHG Inventory (MMTCO2e) | Ratio of MRR Emissions (2021/2020) | Estimated 2021 Emissions (MMTCO2e) | Estimated 2022 Emissions (MMTCO2e) |
| Transportation | 136 | 1.0913 | 148 | 148.8 ±13.3 |
| Electric Power | 60 | 1.0345 | 62 | 60.4 ±1 |
| Industrial | 73 | 1.0186 | 75 | 76.1 ±3.8 |
| Residential & Commercial | 39 | 0.9998 | 39 | 39.3 ±1 |
| Agriculture | 32 | N/A | 32 | 31.6 ±0.2 |
| High GWP | 21 | N/A | 21 | 20.9 ±0.3 |
| Recycling & Waste | 9 | N/A | 9 | 8.8 ±0.1 |
| Total | 369 | 384 | 386 ±17.7 |
This is of course bad news, since addressing climate change requires deep and swift emissions reductions and the trend is clearly inconsistent with state law, which requires carbon neutrality by 2045. (See Health & Saf. Code, § 38562.2, subd. (c).)
CARB’s disclaimer for this analysis sounds defensive. It reports that these estimates are provided only because they are required by law and “should not be used for any policy making decisions or regulatory compliance, nor cited for any purpose.” (Emphasis added.)