California State Budget Item 3900-001-3237 required CARB to publish annually for three years beginning in 2022 a preliminary estimate of the prior-year’s GHG emissions. CARB’s reporting is very oddly worded, and cautions in multiple places that it is posting only as required by statutory budget item and is not intended for decision making or regulatory compliance.
You can find those reports here: 2021, 2022, and 2023. They are also summarized below.
On February 13, 2024, the Senate Environmental Quality joined the Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Subcommittee No. 2 on Resources, Environmental Protection and Energy, met to consider the new proposed “Cap and Trade Rulemaking” and to examine more closely why the state’s current cap-and-trade program is not on track to drive environmental justice and affordability outcomes by 2030. Staff produced a background paper to summarize the concerns. You can watch the hearing here.
The meeting will focus on the economic impacts of the new cap and trade regulatory changes. The cost benefit analysis (Standardized Regulatory Impact Assessment or SRIA) was prepared pursuant to regulations adopted by the Department of Finance.
Table 1 from page 5 the SRIA sets out the costs and benefits predicted from the action, although it lumps them all together.
In total, it appears that the $79.4 – $82.8 billion costs of the program will be overshadowed by the $125.70 – $561.10 billion in benefits. Read the full report to understand the ranges, which are largely due to the differences in the proposed scenarios and the discount rate applied.