Fifth National Climate Assessment Reveals Grim Outlook and the Need for Urgent Action

Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) was released this month. The NCA5 describes itself as “the US Government’s preeminent report on climate change impacts, risks, and responses. It is a congressionally mandated interagency effort that provides the scientific foundation to support informed decision-making across the United States.”

NCA5 reports that climate change is having severe and worsening effects on California. It details that increasing temperatures have intensified drought, leading to a more arid future, while extreme heat will harm crop production and bring widespread economic impacts. Additionally, the assessment warns of unprecedented wildfires in California, driven in part by the changing climate, with high-severity wildfires expected to continue as temperatures rise, putting people and ecosystems at greater risk. The report also describes food shortages, floods, droughts, wildfires, pollution, and disease—all linked to climate change. Furthermore, the assessment emphasizes that many regional climate impacts, including extreme heat and flooding, disproportionately impact low-income communities and communities of color.

Overall, the NCA5 underscores the urgent need for action to prevent additional heating of the planet and to adapt to the changing climate in California and the Southwest.

Voluntary Carbon Market Disclosures Act (VCMDA) Adopted

The recently adopted Voluntary Carbon Market Disclosures Act (VCMDA) will go into effect on January 1, 2024.  (See Assembly Bill (AB) 1305 (Chapter 365, of Statutes of 2023).) 

According to the bill’s author, the “voluntary carbon offset industry is currently a wild west with all transparency or regulation being entirely voluntary.  While offsets used for compliance market are regulated, voluntary carbon offset credits sold to consumers or businesses to voluntarily offset their emissions are completely unregulated. With a variety of recent reports all demonstrating consistent over crediting and lack of legitimate additionality in voluntary offset projects, there is a clear and pressing need for increased accountability and transparency. Requiring important details about the offsets being sold and purchased, such as the site location and how the total number of credits to be sold were calculated allows researchers and the public to better evaluate the validity of the credits being sold. By doing this, AB 1305 will combat greenwashing and give consumers a meaningful tool to decide which projects are worth investing in to reduce their carbon footprint.”

The VCMDA will apply to public and private companies operating in California that make claims or purchase or use VCOs, or sell or market VCOs in the state. Violations of the VCMDA could result in civil penalties of up to $2,500 per day per violation, not to exceed $500,000.

CARB Reports Emissions Are Up

CARB recently released a preliminary greenhouse gas inventory reporting that the the state’s emissions increased  in 2021 and 2022 as compared with 2020.

Reporting by Scoping Plan sector in units of million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO2e), CARB revealed that emissions are on an upward trend:

Sector2020 GHG Inventory (MMTCO2e)Ratio of MRR Emissions (2021/2020)Estimated 2021 Emissions (MMTCO2e)Estimated 2022 Emissions (MMTCO2e)
Transportation1361.0913148148.8 ±13.3
Electric Power601.03456260.4 ±1
Industrial731.01867576.1 ±3.8
Residential & Commercial390.99983939.3 ±1
Agriculture32N/A3231.6 ±0.2
High GWP21N/A2120.9 ±0.3
Recycling & Waste  9N/A98.8 ±0.1
Total369 384386 ±17.7

This is of course bad news, since addressing climate change requires deep and swift emissions reductions and the trend is clearly inconsistent with state law, which requires carbon neutrality by 2045. (See Health & Saf. Code, § 38562.2, subd. (c).)

CARB’s disclaimer for this analysis sounds defensive.  It reports that these estimates are provided only because they are required by law and “should not be used for any policy making decisions or regulatory compliance, nor cited for any purpose.”  (Emphasis added.)

EJAC: Critical of Scoping Plan, Calling it Business as Usual

The EJAC meet several times during the preparation of the new scoping plan in 2021 and 2022, on June 3, August 3 and 26, September 22 and 27, October 12 and 15, November 9 and 16, December 1 and 14, 2021, and January 25, February 8 and 28, March 1, 10, and 30, April 25 and 26, May 23 and 24, June 27 and 28, July 25 and 26, August 22 and 23, September 1, 26, and 27, October 24 and 25, and November 29 and 30, 2022.

On September 30, 2022, the EJAC wrote a letter to CARB. EJAC was critical of the draft scoping plan, calling it “business as usual.” It argued that greater focus should be on direct emission reductions that covered all sources, rather than a plan that extends the life of fossil fuel and natural resource extraction. See details in the letter. You can also find CARB’s response here.

SB 253 and 261: Climate Accountability Package Includes New Corporate Transparency Requirements

Recently, California enacted two climate-related reporting statutes, making it the first state in the U.S. to impose requirements on companies to disclose and report their emissions. The Climate Corporate Data Accountability Act (SB 253, Chapter 382, Statutes of 2023)) and the Climate-Related Financial Risk Act (SB 261, Chapter 383, Statutes of 2023)) require certain public and private entities doing business in California to make public disclosures of their scope greenhouse gas emissions and publicly report their climate-related risks and efforts to address them. These statutes expand the scope of companies covered by their requirement beyond those covered by the current Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed disclosure standards. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) must promulgate regulations implementing SB 253 by January 1, 2025, and reporting obligations under both statutes will begin in 2026.

The new California laws impose unprecedented reporting requirements on large U.S. public and private companies doing business in California, including disclosure of Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions beginning in 2026 and Scope 3 GHG emissions in 2027, submission of biennial climate-related financial risk reports to CARB beginning in 2026, and obtaining third-party assurance of disclosures. The California Climate Accountability Package requires both public and private U.S. companies doing business in California and generating over $1 billion in gross annual revenue to disclose their Scope 1, Scope 2, and Scope 3 GHG emissions to the state of California on an annual basis.

The California legislature’s stated purpose in adopting this legislation is to address the impact of climate change on the state’s residents and economy, increase corporate transparency and informed decision making, standardize climate-related disclosure, and increase corporate accountability in the effort to move toward a net-zero carbon economy.

CARB’s Scoping Plans

The California Scoping Plan refers to a comprehensive strategy developed by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to outline measures and actions aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the state. The plan is a key component of California’s commitment to addressing climate change and meeting its statutory targets for reducing emissions.

The 2008 Scoping Plan, which was actually finalized in 2009, was the first such plan. As required by statute, the Scoping Plan has been updated every five years by CARB since then.

The 2022 Scoping Plan can be found here: 2022 Scoping Plan for Achieving Carbon Neutrality

The 2017 Scoping Plan can be found here: California’s 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan

The 2013 Scoping Plan can be found here: First Update to the Climate Change Scoping Plan: Building on the Framework Pursuant to AB 32: The California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006

The 2008 Scoping Plan can be found here: Climate Change Scoping Plan: A Framework for Change Pursuant to AB 32 The California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006

Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO): Assessing California’s Climate Policies–The 2022 Scoping Plan Update

The Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) recently evaluated the California Air Resources Board’s (CARB) 2022 Scoping Plan Update, which outlines the state’s plan for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The report can be found here: Assessing California’s Climate Policies—The 2022 Scoping Plan Update. The Scoping Plan Update aims to achieve a 48% reduction in GHG emissions below the 1990 level by 2030 and at least an 85% reduction by 2045. However, the LAO’s assessment found that the plan lacks a clear strategy for meeting the 2030 GHG goals, as it does not specify the specific policies it will implement to achieve these reductions. The report provides recommendations for legislative next steps. 

Specifically, the LAO recommended that the California legislature should work with CARB to develop a more detailed plan that outlines specific policies and measures to achieve the 2030 GHG reduction goals. Additionally, the report suggested that the legislature should consider providing oversight to ensure that the plan is effectively implemented and that the state is on track to meet its GHG reduction targets.

The Climate Data Dashboard

The state of California has a lot of information on how it is performing in terms of meeting its climate goals, but this data is not always easy to find. To address this issue, a website has been created to provide a concise, easy-to-use overview of most of the major sources of climate law data and reporting from state regulators and state watchdogs

By compiling and regularly updating information on certain key state policies and actors, the website aims to provide both casual readers and researchers with straightforward access to the full scope of California’s climate reporting. Readers can find detailed information on these reports and data by following links provided.

Project Proposal

I am a climate law researcher.  The idea for this site was born from my frustrations in that context.

The state of California has a lot of information on how it is performing in terms of meeting its climate goals, but this data is not always easy to find. While there is significant transparency in California regarding its climate policies, in the sense that there are lots of laws requiring study and publication of emission reductions, policy effectiveness, and the like, there is no page where all of this data is collected on one website.  Most people don’t even know about the studies and reports they are so buried. It’s frustrating for me when I have to hunt them down all the time and I imagine it might be frustrating for others.  I felt like the transparency in practice was missing as a result.

To address this issue, this website has been created to provide a concise, hopefully easy-to-use overview of most of the major sources of climate law data and reporting from state regulators and state watchdogs. By compiling and regularly updating information on certain key state policies and actors, the website aims to provide both casual readers and researchers with straightforward access to the full scope of California’s climate reporting. Readers can get a general understanding of the sources of data and reporting by exploring the pages of this website and more detailed information on these reports and data by following links provided.

This site may change over time, and it may not. But for the time being, the I will include (1) a brief description of each entity tasked with reporting on the effectiveness of California’s climate policy and (2) links to their reports, or whatever form the information is available. For some, there are no reports and the information is buried in meeting agendas or videos of public meetings.

Someday, maybe, I’ll expand the site to include more functionality like news reports, conferences, and other information like podcasts and the like, but that would be way down the line.

Thanks being here. We’re all in this together.